Análisis económico de la estrategia nacional para el control epidémico del VIH en Guatemala (2015-2019)

Abstract

The context of HIV continues to be critical in Guatemala, with no signs of moving towards epidemic control. This research aims to study in-depth the HIV epidemic in Guatemala from a health economics perspective. We analyzed the epidemiological and economic at the subnational level data between the years 2015-2019 managed by the national health system. We seeking to know the current state of the public health response and weight its quality based on criteria of comparative efficiency, aligned to the epidemic control in the country. Evidence will show that the public health response to HIV at disaggregated levels is currently not coordinated with the allocation of public financial resources. This manifests itself in continuous economic inefficiencies, new infections, and deaths throughout Guatemala's health areas. Recognizing the weaknesses of the current context, we formulate a series of technical proposals under economic optimization models that seek to guide the management of funds based on the demands of health services at the subnational level. The recommendations included here model the economic cost to achieve national epidemic control by 2030, internalizing the strategic axes of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression. The models prioritize the efficient management of public resources before discussing increases in general budget levels.